Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
Politics · market-implied 5.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+5.5 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
5.5%
Model estimate
10.9%
YES
5.5%
NO
94.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.9 pts · Δ24h -3.9 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
5.5%
NO
94.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.001 vs 0.002 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 5.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 10.9%, indicating a possible +5.5 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.9 pts · Δ24h -3.9 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
- Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.
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Execution
YES
NO