Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
World · market-implied 12.1%
Recent price
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-4.9 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
12.1%
Model estimate
92.8%
YES
12.1%
NO
87.9%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -4.8 pts · Δ24h -4.8 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
12.1%
NO
87.9%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.001 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 12.1%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 7.2%, indicating a possible -4.9 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -4.8 pts · Δ24h -4.8 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Related links
Related markets
Execution
YES
NO