BinaryStreaks

Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

Updated 5h ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Weather · market-implied 50.5%

Above estimatePolymarketVolume ~188,686.365← All markets

Recent price

50.5%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

Active signals

Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
Polymarket
Above estimate

Trend Continuation

Confidence Low
Opportunity: NO sideModel leaning NO

Edge

-18.5 pts

Strong edge

Market-implied

50.5%

Model estimate

68.0%

YES

50.5%

NO

49.5%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Δ6h +3.5 pts · Δ24h +3.5 pts (same direction)

Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
Polymarket

Low Liquidity Warning

Confidence Mid

YES

50.5%

NO

49.5%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Spread 0.040 vs 0.030 · thin top-book

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 50.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 32.0%, indicating a possible -18.5 percentage point difference.

Why this is flagged: Δ6h +3.5 pts · Δ24h +3.5 pts (same direction)

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
  • Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.

Related links

Browse all markets →Browse signals →Explore related topic →More in Weather →

Related markets

Execution

YES

Best bid (sell)
27¢
Best ask (buy)
31¢
Spread
4¢
Midpoint
29¢
Depth (top level)
bid 6 · ask 901.37

NO

Best bid (sell)
69¢
Best ask (buy)
73¢
Spread
4¢
Midpoint
71¢
Depth (top level)
bid 901.37 · ask 6