Netanyahu out by June 30?
World · market-implied 4.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Active signals
Market Overreaction
Confidence Mid-highEdge
+5.0 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
4.5%
Model estimate
9.5%
YES
4.5%
NO
95.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move -4.0 pts · 5.0× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+3.0 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
4.5%
Model estimate
7.5%
YES
4.5%
NO
95.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -4.0 pts · Δ24h -4.0 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
4.5%
NO
95.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.010 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 4.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 9.5%, indicating a possible +5.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move -4.0 pts · 5.0× typical volatility
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
- Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.
Related links
Related markets
Execution
YES
NO