Will a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
Crypto · market-implied 22.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of any sovereign UN member state announces between November 13, 3:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a country announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes"). A qualifying purchase requires a relevant country take direct custody over the Bitcoin they purchase. Buying into investment vehicles, ETFs, etc., which do not constitute a direct purchase of Bitcoin, will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the governments of any purchasing UN member state, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Active signals
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
+0.3 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
22.5%
Model estimate
22.8%
YES
22.5%
NO
77.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move -6.5 pts · 3.3× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
0.0 pts
Market-implied
22.5%
Model estimate
-
YES
22.5%
NO
77.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -4.5 pts · Δ24h -4.5 pts (same direction)
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 22.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 22.8%, indicating a possible +0.3 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move -6.5 pts · 3.3× typical volatility
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Execution
YES
NO