NBA · market-implied 25.5%
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for April 24 at 8:00PM ET: If the Lakers win, the market will resolve to "Lakers". If the Rockets win, the market will resolve to "Rockets". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
-1.5 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
25.5%
Model estimate
76.0%
YES
25.5%
NO
74.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move -5.0 pts · 3.8× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
0.0 pts
Market-implied
25.5%
Model estimate
-
YES
25.5%
NO
74.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +4.0 pts · Δ24h +4.0 pts (same direction)
This market is currently priced at 25.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 24.0%, indicating a possible -1.5 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move -5.0 pts · 3.8× typical volatility
YES
NO