BinaryStreaks

Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be between 70% and 75%?

Updated 7d ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

World · market-implied 99.5%

PolymarketVolume ~74,849.61← All markets

Recent price

99.5%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve based on the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Slovenian Parliamentary Election, defined as the total number of ballots cast divided by the total number of eligible voters. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not known by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Slovenian Government, specifically the State Election Commission (https://www.dvk-rs.si/volitve-in-referendumi/drzavni-zbor-rs/).

Active signals

Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be between 70% and 75%?
Polymarket

Trend Continuation

Confidence Mid-low
Opportunity: NO sideModel leaning NO

Edge

-1.5 pts

Early edge

Market-implied

99.5%

Model estimate

2.0%

YES

99.5%

NO

0.5%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Δ6h +17.0 pts · Δ24h +17.0 pts (same direction)

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 99.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 98.0%, indicating a possible -1.5 percentage point difference.

Why this is flagged: Δ6h +17.0 pts · Δ24h +17.0 pts (same direction)

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.

Related links

Browse all markets →Browse signals →Explore related topic →More in World →

Related markets

Execution

YES

Best bid (sell)
99¢
Best ask (buy)
100¢
Spread
1¢
Midpoint
99¢

NO

No live book