Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by June 30?
Politics · market-implied 0.7%
Recent price
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count. New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Active signals
Market Overreaction
Confidence Mid-highEdge
+9.0 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
0.7%
Model estimate
9.8%
YES
0.7%
NO
99.3%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move -2.5 pts · 4.3× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+2.6 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
0.7%
Model estimate
3.3%
YES
0.7%
NO
99.3%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -6.2 pts · Δ24h -6.2 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
0.7%
NO
99.3%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.070 vs 0.060 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 0.7%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 9.8%, indicating a possible +9.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move -2.5 pts · 4.3× typical volatility
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
- Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.
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Execution
YES
NO