Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?
Weather · market-implied 37.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus. Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+5.5 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
37.5%
Model estimate
43.0%
YES
37.5%
NO
62.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +5.5 pts · Δ24h +7.0 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
37.5%
NO
62.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.020 vs 0.010 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 37.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 43.0%, indicating a possible +5.5 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +5.5 pts · Δ24h +7.0 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
- Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.
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- Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
- Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Execution
YES
NO