BinaryStreaks

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Estimated fair value (EFV)

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no EFV.

Edge / gap

The difference between EFV and market-implied, in percentage points (EFV minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only—not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to EFV when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Severity

How strong the rule hit is on a 1–5 scale. It reflects rule strength, not statistical confidence that the outcome will occur.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card—often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Market-implied 1.4%

—Volume ~1,290,693.066← All markets

Recent price

1.4%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participates on the ground in an anti-cartel operation on Mexican soil by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation which is either confirmed by the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government, however an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.

Active signals

No active signals for this market.