Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
Crypto · market-implied 35.0%
Recent price
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD). The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’26” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized. If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.
Active signals
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
+2.0 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
35.0%
Model estimate
37.0%
YES
35.0%
NO
65.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move +3.0 pts · 3.2× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-0.5 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
35.0%
Model estimate
65.5%
YES
35.0%
NO
65.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -6.0 pts · Δ24h -6.0 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
35.0%
NO
65.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.050 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 35.0%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 37.0%, indicating a possible +2.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move +3.0 pts · 3.2× typical volatility
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Execution
YES
NO