Inflation · market-implied 42.5%
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+2.6 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
42.5%
Model estimate
45.1%
YES
42.5%
NO
57.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +5.3 pts · Δ24h +5.3 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
42.5%
NO
57.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.038 vs 0.033 · thin top-book
This market is currently priced at 42.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 45.1%, indicating a possible +2.6 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +5.3 pts · Δ24h +5.3 pts (same direction)
YES
NO