BinaryStreaks

Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-10?

Updated 3d ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Sports · market-implied 23.5%

PolymarketVolume ~148,955.76← All markets

Recent price

23.5%

In the upcoming game, scheduled for May 10, 2026 If São Paulo FC wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Active signals

Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-10?
Polymarket

Market Overreaction

Confidence Mid

Edge

0.0 pts

Market-implied

23.5%

Model estimate

-

YES

23.5%

NO

76.5%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: 1h move -2.0 pts · 4.0× typical volatility

Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-10?
Polymarket
Below estimate

Trend Continuation

Confidence Low
Opportunity: YES sideModel leaning YES

Edge

+4.5 pts

Moderate edge

Market-implied

23.5%

Model estimate

28.0%

YES

23.5%

NO

76.5%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Δ6h -5.0 pts · Δ24h -5.0 pts (same direction)

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 23.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 23.5%, indicating a possible 0.0 percentage point difference.

Why this is flagged: 1h move -2.0 pts · 4.0× typical volatility

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.

Related links

Browse all markets →Browse signals →Explore related topic →More in Sports →

Related markets

Execution

YES

Best bid (sell)
7¢
Best ask (buy)
74¢
Spread
67¢
Midpoint
41¢
Depth (top level)
bid 46.58 · ask 51

NO

Best bid (sell)
26¢
Best ask (buy)
93¢
Spread
67¢
Midpoint
60¢
Depth (top level)
bid 51 · ask 46.58