US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Iran Ceasefire · market-implied 10.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-0.5 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
10.5%
Model estimate
90.0%
YES
10.5%
NO
89.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -7.5 pts · Δ24h -7.5 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
10.5%
NO
89.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.010 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 10.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 10.0%, indicating a possible -0.5 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -7.5 pts · Δ24h -7.5 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Related markets
Execution
YES
NO