Sports · market-implied 60.5%
This market refers to the LoL match between Hanwha Life Esports and T1 in the LCK Rounds 1-2, initially scheduled for May 1 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Hanwha Life Esports" if Hanwha Life Esports win Game 2 against T1. This market will resolve to "T1" if T1 win Game 2 against Hanwha Life Esports. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 2. If Game 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
-2.2 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
60.5%
Model estimate
41.8%
YES
60.5%
NO
39.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move +4.5 pts · 3.9× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
0.0 pts
Market-implied
60.5%
Model estimate
-
YES
60.5%
NO
39.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +4.5 pts · Δ24h +4.5 pts (same direction)
This market is currently priced at 60.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 58.3%, indicating a possible -2.2 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move +4.5 pts · 3.9× typical volatility
YES
NO