Implied / market-implied YES
The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.
Model estimate
A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.
Edge / gap
The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.
Stance (above / below / near estimate)
Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.
Confidence
A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.
Volume
Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.
Change & sparklines
Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.
Signals
Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.
