Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?
Politics · market-implied 89.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of resignations or firings will not alone qualify. The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair. This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-10.5 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
89.5%
Model estimate
21.0%
YES
89.5%
NO
10.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -12.0 pts · Δ24h -7.5 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
89.5%
NO
10.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.010 vs 0.030 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 89.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 79.0%, indicating a possible -10.5 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -12.0 pts · Δ24h -7.5 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
- Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.
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Execution
YES
NO